Signal to Noise--The FTC Is Worried About Your Blog, Aerial Weapons & C4ISR and EW at the 2007 Paris Airshow
Signal to Noise
CEI's Technology Policy Digest
June 25, 2009
The National Broadband Debate
FCC's National Broadband Plan for Our Future
http://broadbandcensus.com/2009/06/at-mondays-deadline-industry-advocacy-groups-weigh-in-on-fcc-broadband-plan/
CEI's Wayne Crews and Ryan Radia Weigh In
http://cei.org/rcandtestimony/2009/06/08/cei-comments-national-broadband-plan-our-future
CEI in the Blogosphere
FTC to Monitor Blogs for Undisclosed Compensation
by Elizabeth Jacobson
"The FTC. . . wants to extend its reach to Twitter and other social media services. Perhaps Twitter will have to increase its 140-character limit if users who tweet about a product will be required to include a “#CompensatedReviewFTCCompliant” hashtag."
http://www.openmarket.org/2009/06/22/ftc-to-monitor-bloggers-for-undisclosed-compensation/
Wasteful Regulation
by Merin Yu
In an attempt to soften the effects of this regulation, the government had the idea of offering $40 coupons to offset the costs of a converter box (which can run up to $80) that would be necessary for older televisions to continue to function. However, as of January 4, 2009, more than five months before the switch, the government had already run out of coupons. Estimates suggest that 1 in 4 households will dispose of a TV, many of them in perfect working condition, due to the switch to DTV.
http://www.openmarket.org/2009/06/17/wasteful-regulation/
U.S. Senate Investigates Mobile Phone Exclusivity Deals
by Elizabeth Jacobson
It’s far from clear that mobile phone exclusivity agreements have made the marketplace less competitive. More dubious still are claims that exclusive agreements are hurting consumers. Were the FCC to declare that exclusivity contracts are somehow anticompetitive, then the effort to benefit a few consumers would result in slower innovation, higher prices, and less overall choice for all consumers.
http://www.openmarket.org/2009/06/21/us-senators-all-consumers-have-a-right-to-own-an-iphone/
One Policy, One System, Universal Service
by Jack O'Connor
Today, as the FCC invites comments on “a national broadband plan for our future,” no one seriously believes that telecom monopolies are a good idea. Even pro-regulation advocacy groups like Free Press now support “competition policies"
http://www.openmarket.org/2009/06/15/one-policy-one-system-universal-service/
Export Controls: Impediments to Tech Free Trade
by Alex Harris
Laws ostensibly designed to prevent terrorism and proliferation in fact control way more than weapons and chemicals - indeed, they regulate even extremely mundane goods like servers, software with encryption, and the technical data used to design and build such products.
http://techliberation.com/2009/06/18/export-controls-and-other-impediments-to-free-trade/
In The News
Woman Found Liable in File-Sharing
The Wall Street Journal, 06-19-09
Broadband Internet Fairness Act Introduced to Congress
Peter Smith, ITWorld.com, 06-18-09
Congressman Files Bill to Stop Tiered Broadband Pricing
Stacey Higginbotham, GigaOM, 06-17-09
AT&T and Verizon Deny Price-Fixing Accusations
Marguerite Reardon, CNET.news, 06-16-09
Questions Senators Should be Asking Julius Genachowski
Richard Morrison, Competitive Enterprise Institute, 06-15-09
Will Web Poker Bust Spark Fight or Flight?
Liz Benston, Las Vegas Sun, 06-15-09
Lawmakers Blast Internet Data Collection
Amy Schatz, Wall Street Journal, 06-10-09
Senators to Examine Exclusive Handset Deals
Nancy Gohring, ITWorld.com, 06-16-09
Why We Love Technology
The Military Application of the iPhone
Benjamin Sutherland, Newsweek, 04-27-09
June 23rd is Alan Turing's Birthday--Read More About the Father of Computer Science
Wikipeida's bio
The Turing Test from the Standford Encyclopdia of Philosophy
Ryan Lynch
Director of Web Development and IT
Competitive Enterprise Institute
rlynch@cei.org
http://www.cei.org
http://www.openmarket.org
202-331-1010
Aerial Weapons & C4ISR and EW at the 2007 Paris Airshow
http://defense-update.com/events/2007/summary/parisairshow07systems.htm#more
AESA radars continue to capture the imagination and enthusiasm of designers and air forces, as their development progress and systems becoming more mature and reliable. While only a few systems actually work with full functionality on a regular basis, Active Electronic Scanning Array (AESA) provides virtually unlimited growth potential, due to its inherent agility (as a software controlled, electronically steering device), and design flexibility. Apart from its basic radar functionality, AESA can be used actively or passively, in support of a broad range of applications – including high power jamming, communications datalink or electronic intelligence (ELINT) sensor, passively employing its sensitive receive modules. (more...)
Communicating by Radar
Tapping the potential of non-traditional Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) Raytheon and L-3 Communications teamed to exploit data transfer applications of AESA radars. During flight tests conducted by the team, AESA radars were used to communicate high bandwidth SAR image map data at extremely high speed – far exceeding the capabilities of current fighter communication systems. Images were sent at a TV speed of 30 frames per second, from the aircraft to a ground based processing center. When image exploitation was completed, it was transmitted back to the aircraft, with the analyst's annotations.
This capability demonstrates the potential uses of AESA radars with tactical and surveillance aircraft as well as unmanned systems. This new capability is poised to become a key element in the Global Information Grid (GIG), adding potential secure communication links that will increase the GIG's information gathering and decision making utility for all users. As these radars proliferate among operational units and the transmit-receive infrastructure grows, these capabilities will support an increasing array of applications such as combat identification and homeland security, areas where communications interoperability and data fusion are essential.
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Going Net Centric now!
The thrust for net-centricity and overarching control via datalinks has also some negative effects, as it overloads the limited electromagnetic spectrum resources, driving users into ever higher frequencies. One of the ultimate solutions is the use narrow-band laser communications, carrying broadband point-to-point communications between airborne or surface bound terminals and specially equipped satellite. (Laser communications between satellites is already in development). The advantages of laser communications are numerous – they are discrete, resistant to countermeasures, extremely difficult to intercept and are immune to conventional eavesdropping techniques. Since these links do not require frequency coordination, they can establish connection rapidly and can sustain high transfer rates (and operating at high data-rate (100 MB/sec - 1 GB/sec).
Live communications via the Laser Optical Link (LOLA) was demonstrated during the Paris Air Show by the French Ministry of Defense' armament development and procurement agency (DGA). The exhibit was linked, via satellite, to an airborne Mystère 20 aircraft, transmitting live imagery captured on board. The display transferred live video from the cabin sending clear views of the countryside below. LOLA rapidly established links, within less than one second, and consistently transferred data at rates of 50 Mb/sec.
Advanced Integrated Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (I-ISTAR) technologies, developed by Thales, highlighted an accelerated processing cycle of the Observation, Orientation, Decision and Action (OODA). Thales is developing the Aeros Recon NG recce pod as an airborne recce EO system for the French Rafale. The pod has already been qualified for the Mirage 2000 and will enter service with Rafale F3 by 2009 for the French Air Force and Navy. One of the new technologies demonstrated by Thales this year, is the "Imagery on Demand" (IOD) technology, enabling the dissemination of real-time optimized optical or SAR images over low-bandwidth battlefield communications. Such systems enable analysts and end users to share images processed by the Thales MINDS systems deployed in fixed or forward locations.
Non traditional ISR is becoming a popular element in the planning and support of joint operations. At the Paris Airshow DRS described now Advanced Fighter Aircraft Command and control system (AFACE) pod system could establish real-time, worldwide air-to-air and air-to-ground modular communications and intelligence sharing network. Current FACE pods, carried on standard missile launch rails by A-10s, F-15s, F-18 and CF-18s have accumulated over fifty thousand flight hours, offering faster response to time critical targets and significantly improving low altitude communications, since they reduce the aircraft dependency on UHF/VHF repeater towers. The advanced version will be available in pod, or internally mounted configurations, providing real-time flight tracking (via GPS and INS). It will include a flight data recorder providing mission planning and debriefing functions. AFACE will introduce more versatile communications including secure voice and data, video, support conference calls and pilot dial-out. It will also include broadband Iridium link and WiFi connection. The system is offered with two add-on modules, supporting non traditional ISR and counter IED missions. The geo-referenced targeting mission module will establish geo-referenced imagery database on board enabling users to download relevant images according to their preference. The system will also support 'cursor on target' functionality, extracting accurate target coordinates for geo-targeted weapons. For the Anti-IED (electronic attack) mission, the system could be used to augment other EW platforms covering high priority missions, rendering select ground threats ineffective.
The Russian Communications specialist Polyot unveiled some of the new capabilities, driving the evolving command and control infrastructure supporting modern Russian fighters, used domestically and for export. Polyot claims that aircraft supported by their encrypted, jam resistant datalinks can achieve up to 25% increase in combat effectiveness, by establishing autonomous fighter groups and reducing pilot workload. The systems support high speed data networks and use universal interfaces for integration, linking the aircraft avionics and ground based communications.
A more autonomous 'pilot associate' style system was introduced by Elbit Systems. Called "On-Board Decision Support and Mission Planning System – ODSS, this system is designed to arrange, process and display to the pilot, the most relevant mission critical information necessary for optimal flight path decision. Based on operational expertise, experience and input from combat pilots, Elbit Systems established the ODSS knowledge-base, employing artificial intelligence system to analyze current mission data, tactical and geographical information, generating a recommended flight path designed for each mission profile. For example, ODSS can recommend an optimal flight path which leaves optimal space for evasive maneuvers in a segment of the flight path exposed to enemy threats. The system is used on the ground, supporting an automated mission preparation. While airborne, ODSS contributes to faster, more accurate and efficient decisions, based on the rapid and continuous analysis of multiple possible options.
Precision Attack Getting Cheaper?
Few new weapons were on display here. Much of the work is being focused on reducing the 'cost of precision kill' by introducing affordable, high precision guidance systems, and lighter weapons both contributing to more precise effect with less collateral damage. To enhance future, low-cost guided weapons, low-cost strap-down dual-mode seekers employing Semi-Active Laser (SAL) and Infra-Red (IR) guidance systems are developed by MBDA. These components will be used with powerful, low-cost computing and actuating systems enhancing future 'smart' munitions, including 68/70mm guided rockets, 155mm guided artillery projectiles and 120mm mortar bombs.
Elbit Systems also unveiled a laser guidance kit developed for aerial weapons. In the past, the company developed laser guidance kits for the Wizzard guided bomb; these have now been miniaturized into guidance kits, fitting bombs as well as much smaller 68/70mm rockets, converting these into ‘metric’ precision-guided weapons. The kit, designated "STAR" improves the accuracy and overall effectiveness of attack missions as well as reducing collateral damage. The STAR guidance kit was recently selected by Boeing, to upgrade the JDAM GPS guided bombs.
Sagem displayed the growing family of AASM guided bombs, including 2,000, 1,000 and 500 pound weapons. Another version, a 250 pound guided bomb is currently in development. AASM is scheduled to enter service with the French Air Force Rafale squadrons this year (2007). Boeing recently received $28 million contract to fit laser guidance kits to 600 existing 500 pounds JDAMS (400 for the air force, 200 for the Navy) by 2009 to meet a quick reaction USAF program.
Fighting over GPS Control
GPS has become so common and natural, that we can’t think how we could live without it. But GPS is also highly sensitive to interference and deception, especially at war, when GPS jammers are employed. Such systems were shown by the Russian company Aviaconversiya, the same company that, in 2003, sold GPS jammers to Saddam Hussein. Aviaconversiya presented a range of portable / airborne and remotely controlled jammers called "Umbrella" that can cover a wire area disabling GPS services over the entire country. The employment of such systems will deny both friendly and enemy use of GPS guided systems, such as simple UAVs and GPS guided weapons (such as JDAM). "We don’t know how many systems were sold to Iraq, since they were procured by middlemen" Aviaconversiya executive told Defense Update, ‘but there were plenty of them. Until then, our biggest customer was the US government, buying our systems for evaluation and testing". He added.
The Pentagon is certainly concerned about the vulnerability of its GPS systems. Several programs were launched to eliminate this capability gap. In particular, extensive work is in progress to improve the capability of the GPS guided Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) to overcome GPS jamming. In June 2007 Boeing announced the successful completion of developmental flight testing of its integrated GPS Anti-Jam system (IGAS) for JDAM. According to Boeing’s program manager for IGAS, Dennis Kast, "IGAS uses digital signal processing to significantly reduce the impact of GPS jamming, allowing the warfighter to use the weapon with confidence in a variety of battlefield environments". Boeing will complete the system’s development in 2007 and plans initial deliveries in 2008.
Another GPS counter-countermeasure, designed to protect GPS navigation systems against enemy jamming and deception was unveiled by Elisra, a member of the Elbit Systems group. The system went through successful flight trials exhibiting smooth and stable functioning. Throughout the test the system successfully annulled powerful jammers with its advanced spatial null steering technology, fully meeting the tests’ complex jamming challenge. The system, designated iSN/V1 ensures on-board GPS receivers are generating reliable, uninterrupted GPS solutions. The system covers extensive geographical areas, providing immunity for multiple satellite channels and handling multiple jammers operating on concurrent frequencies. It is designed for operation on board any system utilizing GPS, including aircraft, helicopters and UAVs
Getting to Zero Update
25 June 2009
Please note, BASIC and Crisis Action have a bi-weekly update devoted solely to diplomatic developments related to Iran's nuclear program, which may be found at the following web address: www.basicint.org/update/iran.htm.
Previous editions of BASIC's GTZ Update are available here.
To subscribe or unsubscribe from this update, please visit the following page: www.basicint.org/contacts/index.php.
IN THIS ISSUE:
* BASIC and Getting to Zero (GTZ)
* Commitments to Disarmament and Arms Control
* Country Reports
o United States
o United Kingdom
o Iran
o North Korea
o Russia
o Pakistan
* Missile Defense
* Additional Publications
BASIC and Getting to Zero (GTZ)
BASIC staff have been meeting with officials in Washington and London while the U.S. administration is conducting a Nuclear Posture Review and the British government is facing pressure to reconsider moving ahead with a replacement platform for its nuclear weapon system. Martin Butcher authored a background briefing on the NPR for BASIC in an effort to inform European officials about the process. The NPR will surely have consequences for NATO's Strategic Concept Review, which the alliance has now started. Paul Ingram, BASIC's Executive Director, and Ian Davis, founder of NATO Watch, warn in this blog entry for the Connect U.S. Fund that NATO will need to pay particular attention to its relationship with Russia in order to allow the Obama administration to pursue fully its nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament goals.
* Obama's Nuclear Posture Review: Putting flesh on the bone of his nuclear diplomacy (PDF)
Martin Butcher, Getting to Zero Special Briefing, June 23, 2009 http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Special-NPR%20(3).pdf
* NATO reform critical to the Obama Administration's nuclear disarmament agenda
Paul Ingram and Ian Davis, Connect U.S. Fund Blog, May 1, 2009
http://www.connectusfund.org/blogs/nato-reform-critical-obama-
administration%E2%80%99s-nuclear-disarmament-agenda
Commitments to Disarmament and Arms Control
Preparatory Committee for 2010 NPT considered a success
Delegates to the third and final session of the Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) for the 2010 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference (RevCon) agreed on a provisional agenda for the 2010 Review Conference - the first time one has been agreed upon in 15 years. The agenda includes consideration of provisions to protect non-nuclear weapons states from nuclear coercion, the establishment of more nuclear weapon-free zones, operationalizing the right of each nation to develop peaceful nuclear energy, and measures to deepen nonproliferation and disarmament.
Delegates failed, despite attempts, to adopt a list of specific recommendations for the RevCon. The first draft, released by the Chair on May 7th, recommended concrete steps to be taken toward disarmament, including reducing the operational status of nuclear forces, marginalizing their role in security policies, and refraining from their "qualitative improvement." But the revised draft, released the following week, watered down the disarmament proposals putting greater emphasis on the implementation of nonproliferation initiatives and highlighting the 1995 Resolution on the Middle East (for a WMD free zone). Demands from some non-nuclear weapon states that the nuclear weapons states agree to legally-binding commitments to dismantle their nuclear arsenals and not to use their nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states were rejected. Members failed to adopt the second revision of recommendations. Nevertheless, the Prep Com was considered to be successful - few had expected any concrete agreements at this point, and the stage has been set for 2010.
Conference on Disarmament - FM(c)T
The second session of the 2009 Conference on Disarmament also experienced a breakthrough. Soon after U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon's opening remarks on May 18 made reference to the encouraging political climate for disarmament, the Conference created a working group to discuss the development of a Fissile Material (cut-off) Treaty (FM(c)T). The White House released a statement by U.S. President Barack Obama declaring, "Today's decision ends more than a decade of inactivity in the Conference on Disarmament, and signals a commitment to work together on this fundamental challenge."
START
The first round of substantive negotiations for follow-on to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) was held in Moscow from May 18-20, with a second round of negotiations held in Geneva from June 1-3. The U.S. delegation was led by Assistant Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller, and the Russian team was headed by Anatoly Antonov, the Russian Foreign Ministry's Chief of Security and Disarmament. The United States reported productive meetings, and a Russian spokeswoman for President Medvedev said that a draft document to replace the 1991 START agreements may be ready by the July 6-8 summit in Moscow. Negotiators began their third round of meetings on June 23 in Geneva. START expires on December 5 of this year.
IAEA continues selection process for a new Director General
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not yet selected a new Director General to replace its current Director, General Mohamed ElBaradei, who steps down in November 2009. Currently there are five nominated candidates for the position: Mr. Yukya Amano (Japan); Mr. Luis Echavarri (Spain); Mr. Abdul Samad Minty (South Africa); Mr. Ernest Petric (Slovenia); and Mr. Jean-Pol Poncelet (Belgium). Following April's elections when all candidates failed to gain the necessary two-thirds majority from the IAEA Board of Governors, a secret non-binding "straw poll" was held on June 9, and Japan's Amano received 20 of the 35 votes cast, leaving him just short of the required two-thirds majority, and South Africa's Minty received 11 votes. A formal vote is scheduled for July 2, and will be repeated until a candidate garners the two-thirds requirement. Diplomats fear that a protracted election process combined with the North-South tension already prevalent on the IAEA Board could damage the Agency.
U.N Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon launches the "WMD-WeMustDisarm! Campaign"
On June 13, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon marked the 100 days leading up to the International Day of Peace on September 21 by launching a new U.N. campaign to "raise awareness of the true costs and dangers of nuclear weapons." Each day during the 100-day campaign, a reason why the international community should support nuclear disarmament is shared via Facebook, Myspace, Twitter, and other social networking and Internet media venues. The United Nations Foundation has a 'We Must Disarm Declaration' open for signatures on their webpage to support the campaign. On June 15 Ban Ki-Moon issued a statement on the importance of expediently bringing the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty into force. He appealed to the nations that have not yet signed and ratified the Treaty to do so as quickly as possible.
Further Reading
Indonesia will Ratify CTBT if U.S. does
UPI, June 9, 2009
http://www.upi.com/Emerging_Threats/2009/06/09/
Indonesia-to-ratify-CTBT-if-US-does/UPI-14461244588906/
Obama seeks global uranium fuel bank
Bryan Bender, Boston Globe, June 8, 2009
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/ 2009/06/08/
with_eye_on_iran_obama_seeks_creation_of_
world_uranium_fuel_bank/
No Nukes: Possibility or Pipe Dream?
The Editors, The New York Times Blog: Room for Debate, June 7, 2009
http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/07/
no-nukes-possibility-or-pipedream/
The Renaissance of Nuclear Disarmament
Anthony Salloum, Embassy, June 3, 2009
http://www.embassymag.ca/page/view/salloum-6-3-2009
Case for Ratifying Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
Samuel Berger, Sam Nunn, and William Perry, Politico, June 2, 2009
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23191.html
After Iraq, it's not just North Korea that wants a bomb
Seumas Milne, The Guardian, May 27, 2009
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/27/
north-korea-nuclear-weapons-us
Report from the NPT Preparatory Committee 2009
Miles A. Pomper, MIIS James Martin Center for Nonproliferation
Studies, May 26, 2009
http://cns.miis.edu/stories/090526_npt_report.htm
Obama Treaty Push Hinges on Global Nuclear 'Listening' Net
Charles Hanley, The Associated Press, May 19, 2009
http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/19/
obama-treaty-push-hinges-on-global-nuclear-listening-net.html
Developing Nations Seek Assurances on Nuclear Arms
Colum Lynch, The Washington Post, May 16, 2009
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/
2009/05/15/AR2009051503518.html
The Trouble With Zero
Philip Taubman, The New York Times, May 9, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/10/weekinreview/
10taubman.html
Turkey to face pressure over U.S. nukes on its soil
Lale Sariibrahimoglu, Today's Zaman, May 4, 2009
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&
link=174286&bolum=100
Electing the Nuclear Pope
Charles D. Ferguson, Foreign Policy, May 2009
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4913
Grading Progress on 13 Steps Toward Nuclear Disarmament
Sharon Squassoni, Carnegie Endowment, Policy Outlook No. 45, May 2009
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/13_steps.pdf
Beyond START: Negotiating the Next Step in U.S. and Russian Strategic
Nuclear Arms Reductions
Steven Pifer, Brookings Foreign Policy Paper Series Number 15, May, 2009
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2009/ 05_arms_
reduction_pifer/05_arms_reduction_pifer.pdf
Reshaping Strategic Relationships: Expanding the Arms Control Toolbox
Lewis A. Dunn, Arms Control Today, May 2009
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_5/Dunn
U.S., Russia Agree on Path for New Arms Cuts
Cole Harvey, Arms Control Today, May 2009
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_5/US-Russia
The Logic of the Test Ban Treaty
Daryl G. Kimball, Arms Control Today, May 2009
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_5/focus
Confronting the Bomb: A Short History of the World Nuclear
Disarmament Movement
Lawrence S. Wittner, Stanford University Press, California, 2009
http://www.sup.org/book.cgi?id=9646
Country Reports
United States
Sensitive, unclassified information on U.S. nuclear sites accidentally published
On June 2, the U.S. Government Printing Office (GPO) accidentally published on its website a 286-page draft document that was prepared for the IAEA on the location and sensitive design details of U.S. nuclear facilities. Steven Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists first reported on the FAS blog Secrecy News the appearance of the document. The GPO took down the report quickly although the document was not classified.
Tauscher confirmation hearing for position in Administration's arms control team
Representative Ellen Tauscher (Chair of the House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee) testified at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing considering her nomination as the new Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security on June 9. She said her immediate priorities will be negotiating a follow-up agreement to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Russia, the development of a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty, and the ratification and entry into force of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Tauscher reiterated President Obama's call for a world free of nuclear weapons, while confirming that the United States will "maintain a safe, secure and reliable deterrent against any adversary and an effective defense for our allies" while nuclear weapons continued to exist. Rep. Tauscher was still awaiting confirmation as of June 24.
On June 1, Secretary of State Clinton named Robert Einhorn as her special advisor for disarmament and nonproliferation and Susan F. Burk was confirmed as the President's special representative for nuclear nonproliferation.
Obama meets with Shultz, Perry, Kissinger and Nunn
On May 19, the four Americans most widely associated with the current push for nuclear disarmament through their two notable op-eds in the Wall Street Journal in January 2007 and 2008, former Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and George Shultz, former Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Sam Nunn, and former Secretary of Defense William Perry, met with President Obama to discuss nuclear weapons strategy. Obama listed strengthening the NPT, pursuing ratification of the CTBT, and cooperating with Russia in arms reduction efforts as specific steps that must be taken to "lock down loose nuclear weapons" and, in the long term, eliminate them. "All four of us support enthusiastically what the president is doing," Shultz commented. After the meeting President Obama spoke with reporters:
"I don't think anybody would accuse these four gentlemen of being dreamers. They're hard-headed, tough defenders of American interests and American security. But what they have come together to help galvanize is a recognition that we do not want a world of continued nuclear proliferation, and that in order for us to meet the security challenges of the future, America has to take leadership in this area."
Senator John McCain also voices qualified support for a world without nuclear weapons
In a June 3 speech honoring former President Ronald Reagan, Arizona Senator and former Republican Presidential candidate John McCain added his voice to the increasing number of U.S. politicians supporting the vision of nuclear disarmament. Quoting a Ronald Reagan speech from 1983, McCain said, "The only value in possessing nuclear weapons is to make sure they can't be used ever. I know I speak for people everywhere when I say our dream is to see the day when nuclear weapons will be banished from the face of the Earth." The same day the White House released a statement by President Obama welcoming McCain's support of a "world without nuclear weapons" and expressing the President's commitment to working together with Congress on issues of arms control.
Further Reading
Nuclear Promises
Zia Mian, Foreign Policy in Focus, June 4, 2009
http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/6166
Remarks by the President on a New Beginning (Cairo Speech)
Barack Obama, The White House, Office of the Press Secretary,
June 4, 2009
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/
05/29/AR2009052903108.html
Statement of Thomas P. D'Agostino, Under Secretary for Nuclear
Security and Administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration, U.S. Department of Energy
Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, June 3, 2009
http://armedservices.senate.gov/statemnt/2009/June/
D%27Agostino%2006-03-09.pdf
The Case for No First Use
Scott D. Sagan, Survival, Volume 51, Issue 3, June 2009, pp. 163-182
(subscription or purchase required to access full article)
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~
content=a911401295~db=all
NPR [Nuclear Posture Review] Terms of Reference Fact Sheet
Department of Defense, June 2, 2009
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/d20090602NPR.pdf
Lots of Hedging, Little Leading: An Analysis of the Congressional
Strategic Posture Commission Report
Hans M. Kristensen and Ivan Oelrich, Arms Control Association, June, 2009
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_6/KristensenOelrich
The Hoped-For Laser Miracles
Editorial, The New York Times, May 28, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/29/opinion/
29fri3.html?th&emc=th
The Test Ban Treaty
Editorial, The New York Times, May 24, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/25/opinion/25mon1.html?em
Statement of Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates
Senate Armed Services Committee, May 14, 2009
http://armed-services.senate.gov/statemnt/2009/May/
Gates%2005-14-09.pdf
Posture Statement of Admiral Michael G. Mullen, USN,
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Senate Armed Services Committee, May 14, 2009
http://armed-services.senate.gov/statemnt/2009/May/
Mullen%2005-14-09.pdf
Testimony on "NNSA's Fiscal Year 2010 President's Budget
Request" by Thomas P. D'Agostino, Under Secretary for Nuclear Security and Administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration, U.S. Department of Energy
House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, May 13, 2009
http://www.nnsa.energy.gov/news/2349.htm
U.S. Warhead disposal in 15-year backlog
Peter Eisler, USA Today, May 13, 2009
http://www.usatoday.com/news/military/2009-05-12-
nukes_N.htm
Obama Administration is Bringing Nuclear Arms Control Back
Mary Beth Sheridan, The Washington Post, May 8, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/25/opinion/25mon1.html?em
Nuclear Bailout: The Costs and Consequences of Renovating
the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Complex
William D. Hartung, New America Foundation, May 7, 2009
http://www.newamerica.net/publications/policy/nuclear_
bailout_costs
Strategic Failure: Congressional Strategic Posture Commission
Report
Ivan Oelrich, Hans M. Kristensen, FAS Strategic Security Blog,
May 6, 2009
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/05/commission-2.php
Defense budget baloney
Winslow T. Wheeler, Politico, May 6, 2009
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0509/22149.html
United Kingdom
UK Commons Report suggests renewal of Trident could be seen as contradictory to UK goals
After receiving evidence from a variety of witnesses and groups, including BASIC, the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee published a report on June 14 on "Global Security: Non-Proliferation." It commended the British government for publicly acknowledging the connection between nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament, but also stated that much more could be done. The Committee warned that the 2010 Review Conference could fail without "decisive movement by the five recognized nuclear weapons states as a whole on nuclear disarmament measures." It advised that the UK government's disarmament public diplomacy and transparency would be undermined by the decision to proceed full speed towards Trident replacement. This fall the British government is due to submit a full design contract [Initial Gate stage] for the new submarines. The report recommended, "that the Government should not take any decision at the Initial Gate stage until Parliament has had the chance to scrutinise the matter in a debate." The Committee also said that the Government should also come forward with an explanation of what it sees as a "minimum deterrent" posture and whether there are any conditions under which the Government "would be prepared to suspend the Trident renewal programme."
Ministry of Defense confirms radioactive leakage from nuclear powered-submarines
In April the Ministry of Defence released a report acknowledging multiple safety breaches at the nuclear submarine fleet's base at Faslane (HM Naval Base Clyde). The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) has sought the right to inspect and control operations at the naval base and has sent "final warning" letters to the MoD, threatening to shut down nuclear operations at Faslane. The UK Government has refused to provide SEPA with direct legal authority, citing national security sensitivities.
Further Reading
A naive approach to nuclear standoff
Harry Phibbs, Comment is Free, The Guardian, June 18, 2009
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/18/nick-
clegg-trident
Nick Clegg says Lib Dems won't replace Trident because world has moved on
Patrick Wintour and Nicholas Watt, The Guardian, June 16, 2009
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jun/16/trident-liberal-
democrats-nick-clegg
Brown urged to review Trident proposal
James Blitz, Financial Times, June 15, 2009
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/311bb044-5944-11de-80b3-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
Global Security: Non-Proliferation Fourth Report of Session 200809
Foreign Affairs Committee, House of Commons, June 14, 2009
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200809/cmselect/cmfaff/
222/222.pdf
Trident may be wrong size ... so we pay an extra GBP100m
Rob Edwards, The Sunday Herald, May 10, 2009
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4156/is_20090510/ai_n31667649/
Iran
Presidential election
The current crisis within Iran, which has this last week included widespread violence, and the power struggle behind the scenes with an uncertain outcome, will have an enduring and fundamental impact on the international dispute over Iran's nuclear program. While all candidates have been committed to continuing the program, it is thought that the leading opposition candidate, Mir Hossein Moussavi, would be more open to diplomatic engagement with the West, and he has suggested that he would provide stronger guarantees that Iran's nuclear program is strictly for energy.
Diplomacy, on hold prior to the elections, remains frozen. U.S. and European officials had hoped to receive an official response from Tehran to their invitation offered through Javier Solana to join the P-5+1 talks. During a diplomatic visit prior to the elections, French President Nicolas Sarkozy strongly urged Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki to support Iran's participation in the P-5+1 talks or risk increased international isolation. U.S. deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Rosemary DiCarlo reported to the Security Council that Iran has not officially responded to the invitation but, despite this, "The United States remains committed to direct diplomacy with Iran to resolve issues of concern to the international community and will engage on the basis of mutual respect." Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has also pressed Iran to respond to the invitation.
IAEA report on Iran's nuclear program
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released their latest report on Iran on June 5, a week before the elections, that presented findings that were similar to previous reports: no confirmation of evidence of diversion; outstanding and unresolved questions; additional number of centrifuges added and greater stocks of enriched uranium accumulated; and an appeal to Iran to implement the Additional Protocol. Iranian officials again responded by reiterating the program's peaceful purposes and that they had cooperated with inspectors to the degree that is required of them.
Ballistic missile test
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates confirmed the May launch of an Iranian medium-range ballistic missile, the Sajjil-2, able to reach Israel and some of southern Europe. President Ahmadinejad had used the test to engage in aggressive electoral posturing during the Iranian Presidential Elections.
Further Reading
Iran Uprising Changes Nuclear Calculus
Joe Cirincione, Huffington Post, June 17, 2009
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joe-cirincione/iran-uprising-changes-nuc_b_216583.html
IAEA Report on Iran: Centrifuge and LEU increases; access to
Arak reactor denied; no progress on outstanding issues
David Albright and Jacqueline Shire, Institute for Science and
International Security, June 5, 2009
http://isis-online.org/publications/iran/Iran_IAEA_Report_Analysis_
5June2009.pdf
Iran Increases Uranium Enrichment Pace; Defies U.N. Inspectors
Jonathan Tirone, Bloomberg, June 5, 2009
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azhpbOe1vsB8
Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions
1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008) and 1835 (2008) in the
Islamic Republic of Iran Report by the Director General, IAEA
(available via the Institute for Science and International Security) June 5, 2009
http://isis-online.org/publications/iran/IAEA_Iran_Report_5June2009.pdf
U.S.-Iranian Engagement: The View from Tehran
International Crisis Group, Middle East Briefing No. 28, June 2, 2009
http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/middle_east___north_
africa/iraq_iran_gulf/b28_u.s._iranian_engagement___the_view_
from_tehran.pdf
Former diplomat: Iran won't stop nuclear work (interview)
Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times, May 27, 2009
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-qa27-
2009may27,0,7118239.story
Iran's test could alter Europe's missile balance
Nicholas Kralev, Washington Times, May 21, 2009
http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/may/21/tehran-
missile-test-stokes-debate/
Iran's Nuclear Program: An Opportunity for Dialogue
Kayhan Barzegar, Center for Strategic Research, May 2009
http://www.csr.ir/departments.aspx?lng=en&depid=74&&abtid=
06&&semid=1797
Iran's Nuclear and Missile Potential: A Joint Threat Assessment by U.S. and
Russian Technical Experts
EastWest Institute, May 2009
http://docs.ewi.info/JTA.pdf
North Korea
North Korea Responses to North Korea's nuclear test
On May 25 North Korea conducted its second underground nuclear test in an effort to "bolster up its nuclear deterrent for self-defense." North Korea also announced that it is no longer bound by the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War and warned other countries not to disrupt or stop its ships suspected of transporting missiles and other weapons. The nuclear test also coincides with intensified speculation and rumors over the future succession to Kim Jong-il.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon issued a statement which "strongly deplores the [...] underground nuclear test [...] in clear and grave violations of the relevant Security Council resolutions." The Security Council was swift to denounce North Korea's actions. On Friday, June 12, after extensive negotiations, the Security Council unanimously passed Security Council Resolution 1874, imposing heightened economic and military sanctions. The resolution also "Calls upon all States to inspect, in accordance with their national authorities and legislation, and consistent with international law, all cargo to and from the DPRK, in their territory, including seaports and airports, if the State concerned has information that provides reasonable grounds to believe the cargo contains items the supply, sale, transfer, or export of which is prohibited." As of June 24th, a U.S. ship was tracking one North Korean vessel, suspected of carrying illicit arms for Myanmar.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton condemned North Korea's "belligerent behavior" and has indicated that the United States will consider placing North Korea back on its list of states that sponsor terrorism, in addition to developing a "mechanism [... to] interdict North Korean shipments." In testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy, Ambassador Stephen Bosworth, reported that the United States remains open to diplomatic engagement, although there are no signs that North Korea is ready or willing to come to the table. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced that the U.S. is deploying its Terminal High Altitude Area and Defense (THADD) and Sea Based X-Band (SBX) radar off the coast of Hawaii. This announcement comes just days after a Japanese newspaper reported that North Korea may launch a long-range ballistic missile toward Hawaii, though many analysts doubt that North Korea has any with that range.
Amid the controversy surrounding North Korea's weapons programs, two American journalists, Laura Ling and Euna Lee, were accused of illegally entering North Korean territory and sentenced to 12 years in a labor camp. American officials were quick to denounce the court's decision and called for the release of the two journalists on humanitarian grounds.
Further Reading
North Korea: Getting Back to Talks
Asia Report No 169, The International Crisis Group, June 18, 2009
http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/north_korea/
169_north_korea___getting_back_to_talks.pdf
North Korea's Nuclear Program: Looking Forward
Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon, Martin Malin, Hui Zhang,
Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, June 9, 2009
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/19105/north_koreas_
nuclear_program.html?breadcrumb=%2F
Testing the World's Patience
Daryl G. Kimball, Arms Control Today, June 2009
http://www.armscontrol.org/2009_06/focus
North Korea's Weapons Testing
John S. Park, U.S. Institute of Peace, On the Issues: North Korea,
May 28, 2009
http://www.usip.org/on_the_issues/nk_weapons.html
Responding to North Korea's Nuclear Test
Gareth Evans, The Age, May 28, 2009
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6119&l=1
Next phase in the analysis of the announced DPRK nuclear test
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, May 27, 2009
http://www.ctbto.org/press-centre/press-releases/2009/next-
phase-in-the-analysis-of-the-announced-dprk-nuclear-test/
Analysts Worry Threatening N. Korea with Sanctions Could Create
Escalation
Andre de Nesnera, Voice of America, May 26, 2009
http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-05-26-voa51.cfm
What to Do About North Korea
Robert Kagan, Dan Blumenthal, The Washington Post, May 26, 2009
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/
2009/05/25/ST2009052502476.html
Commentary: North Korea blast is a test for U.S.
Paul Carroll, Ploughshares Fund, CNN.com, May 26, 2009
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/05/26/carroll.korea.
nuclear/index.html?section=cnn_latest
No Crisis for North Korea
Editorial, The Washington Post, May 26, 2009
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/
05/25/AR2009052501505.html
A path to peace with North Korea
Martin Butcher, Guardian, May 26, 2009
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/26/north-korea-
nuclear-test-peace
North Korea Will Not Be Ignored
Joe Cirincione, Huffington Post, May 25, 2009
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joe-cirincione/north-korea-will-not-
be-i_b_207277.html
Russia
Russia's National Security Strategy Released
On May 13, five days before diplomats began their May 18-20 talks to prepare for the START negotiations, Russian President Medvedev released the new national security strategy detailing over-arching security challenges and policy priorities through 2020. The document [Russian] formalized energy as a key issue and important foreign policy factor, and promised to "make every effort to retain [nuclear] parity with the United States." Security Council head Nikolai Patrushev made clear after the release that NATO enlargement is a high security priority for Russia.
Putin support for vision of world without nuclear weapons; while Commander has low expectations for START follow-on reductions
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Russia could give up nuclear weapons if everyone else that had them did the same, during a meeting with German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier on June 10th. Steinmeier was reported to have focused heavily on issues of nuclear disarmament during his talks with Putin in Moscow and to have encouraged Russian President Medvedev and Putin to pursue improved relations with the United States and the European Union. On the same day, the commander of Russia's Strategic Nuclear Forces, Colonel-General Nikolai Solovtsov, was quoted as saying that Russia cannot cut its nuclear stockpile by more than a few hundred strategic warheads during START follow-on negotiations.
Further Reading
Nuclear Notebook: Russian Nuclear Forces, 2009
Robert S. Norris and Hans M. Kristensen, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,
May/June, 2009
http://thebulletin.metapress.com/content/h304370t70137734/fulltext.pdf
The Loose Russian Nukes
Elizabeth Zolotukhina, GlobalSecurity.org, May 19, 2009
http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/090519345-the-loose-russian-nukes.htm
Pakistan
Pakistan augmenting its nuclear weapons program
In recent testimony before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, Admiral Michael Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that Pakistan, which has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), is substantially stepping up its nuclear weapons program, including the production of more fissile material. Congress is currently considering significantly increased civilian and military aid to Pakistan, as support for counterterrorism efforts, and Senators are seeking assurances the aid is not be spent on increasing the destructiveness of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. The United States has provided funding intended specifically to address the security and safety of Pakistan's nuclear weapons, but has no control or clear audit ability to ensure the money is spent wisely. President Zardari, in an interview with Der Speigel, reassured those concerned that "the nuclear capability of Pakistan is in safe hands," but admitted that this was less certain if Pakistan's democracy were to fail. U.S. President Barack Obama said later in an interview with DAWN that he felt confident "that the Pakistani government has safeguarded its nuclear arsenal."
Further Reading
Another nuclear anniversary
Pervez Hoodbhoy, DAWN, May 28, 2009
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/
dawn/news/pakistan/16-Another-nuclear-anniversary-hs-12
ISIS Statement on Washington Post Report from May 28, 2009
Institute for Science and International Security, May 28, 2009
http://isis-online.org/publications/WP_Language_28May2009.pdf
Missile Defense
Missile defense still hurdle in U.S.-Russian relations
The U.S. proposal, involving ten missile interceptors in Poland and a radar system in the Czech Republic, is currently under review. Before Congressional budgetary hearings on June 9, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said he believed American and Russian officials' assessments of Iran's missile program are now more closely aligned, and suggested that this may mean Russia becomes more amenable to a missile system based in the Czech Republic and Poland. Russian officials afterwards protested saying the plans were still unacceptable and must be abandoned. Colonel-General Nikolai Solovtsov, commander of Strategic Missile Forces, said they hope by 2016 to "modernize not only missile systems but also command-and-control systems in order to improve their ability to overcome missile defenses and increase the survivability of delivery vehicles." Poland expects a U.S. Patriot battery, part of a theater missile defense system, to be set up on its territory this year, regardless of the missile defense timetable. U.S. Admiral Michael Mullen was scheduled to travel to Moscow at the end of June to meet with General Nikolai Markarov, and they are expected to discuss the missile defense system.
Gates proposes cuts to missile defense plans
Secretary Gates has proposed budgetary cuts in missile defense systems in the FY 2010 budget. Roughly $7.8 billion will be allocated for missile defense programs, down $1.2 billion from the previous year. Cuts include the Multiple Kill Vehicle, the Kinetic Energy Interceptor, and Boeing's second Airborne Laser aircraft. The SM-3 and Theater High-Altitude Area Defense programs are due for increases in funding. Gates pledged that the Defense Department will continue to invest in augmenting defenses against long-range missiles.
Further Reading
Strategic Missile Defense: A Reality Check
Greg Thielmann, Arms Control Association, May 21, 2009
http://www.armscontrol.org/system/files/TAB2_5_21_
2009_FINAL1.pdf
Hearing to receive testimony on military space programs in
review of the defense acquisition request for fiscal year 2010
and the future years defense program
Transcript, U.S. Senate Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, May, 20, 2009
http://armed-services.senate.gov/Transcripts/2009/05%20May/
09-32%20-%205-20-09.pdf
Space Security or Anti-Satellite Weapons
Michael Krepon and Sam Black, The Stimson Center Space Security
Program, May 2009
http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/missile/naic/NASIC2009.pdf
Additional Publications
Iran's Procurement of U.S. Military Aircraft Parts: Two case
studies in illicit trade
David Albright, Paul Brannan and Andrea Scheel, Institute for Science and
International Security, May 21, 2009
http://isis-online.org/publications/expcontrol/Iran_Aircraft_ Procurement.pdf
Steinmeier Calls for U.S. to Withdraw Nukes
Oliver Meier, Arms Control Today, May 2009
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_5/Steinmeier
The Taming of the Great Nuclear Powers
Godfried van Benthem van den Bergh, Carnegie Endowment Policy Outlook
No. 46, May 2009
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=
23152&prog=zgp&proj=znpp
An Opportune Moment for a Shared Euro-Atlantic Security Strategy
Simon Serfaty, Center for Strategic & International Studies, May 2009
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/090506_serfaty_strategicconsensus_(2).pdf
Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat Report
National Air and Space Intelligence Center,
Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, NASIC-1031-0985-09, April 2009
(posted on the site of the Federation of American Scientists, June 2009).
http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/missile/naic/NASIC2009.pdf
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CEI's Technology Policy Digest
June 25, 2009
The National Broadband Debate
FCC's National Broadband Plan for Our Future
http://broadbandcensus.com/2009/06/at-mondays-deadline-industry-advocacy-groups-weigh-in-on-fcc-broadband-plan/
CEI's Wayne Crews and Ryan Radia Weigh In
http://cei.org/rcandtestimony/2009/06/08/cei-comments-national-broadband-plan-our-future
CEI in the Blogosphere
FTC to Monitor Blogs for Undisclosed Compensation
by Elizabeth Jacobson
"The FTC. . . wants to extend its reach to Twitter and other social media services. Perhaps Twitter will have to increase its 140-character limit if users who tweet about a product will be required to include a “#CompensatedReviewFTCCompliant” hashtag."
http://www.openmarket.org/2009/06/22/ftc-to-monitor-bloggers-for-undisclosed-compensation/
Wasteful Regulation
by Merin Yu
In an attempt to soften the effects of this regulation, the government had the idea of offering $40 coupons to offset the costs of a converter box (which can run up to $80) that would be necessary for older televisions to continue to function. However, as of January 4, 2009, more than five months before the switch, the government had already run out of coupons. Estimates suggest that 1 in 4 households will dispose of a TV, many of them in perfect working condition, due to the switch to DTV.
http://www.openmarket.org/2009/06/17/wasteful-regulation/
U.S. Senate Investigates Mobile Phone Exclusivity Deals
by Elizabeth Jacobson
It’s far from clear that mobile phone exclusivity agreements have made the marketplace less competitive. More dubious still are claims that exclusive agreements are hurting consumers. Were the FCC to declare that exclusivity contracts are somehow anticompetitive, then the effort to benefit a few consumers would result in slower innovation, higher prices, and less overall choice for all consumers.
http://www.openmarket.org/2009/06/21/us-senators-all-consumers-have-a-right-to-own-an-iphone/
One Policy, One System, Universal Service
by Jack O'Connor
Today, as the FCC invites comments on “a national broadband plan for our future,” no one seriously believes that telecom monopolies are a good idea. Even pro-regulation advocacy groups like Free Press now support “competition policies"
http://www.openmarket.org/2009/06/15/one-policy-one-system-universal-service/
Export Controls: Impediments to Tech Free Trade
by Alex Harris
Laws ostensibly designed to prevent terrorism and proliferation in fact control way more than weapons and chemicals - indeed, they regulate even extremely mundane goods like servers, software with encryption, and the technical data used to design and build such products.
http://techliberation.com/2009/06/18/export-controls-and-other-impediments-to-free-trade/
In The News
Woman Found Liable in File-Sharing
The Wall Street Journal, 06-19-09
Broadband Internet Fairness Act Introduced to Congress
Peter Smith, ITWorld.com, 06-18-09
Congressman Files Bill to Stop Tiered Broadband Pricing
Stacey Higginbotham, GigaOM, 06-17-09
AT&T and Verizon Deny Price-Fixing Accusations
Marguerite Reardon, CNET.news, 06-16-09
Questions Senators Should be Asking Julius Genachowski
Richard Morrison, Competitive Enterprise Institute, 06-15-09
Will Web Poker Bust Spark Fight or Flight?
Liz Benston, Las Vegas Sun, 06-15-09
Lawmakers Blast Internet Data Collection
Amy Schatz, Wall Street Journal, 06-10-09
Senators to Examine Exclusive Handset Deals
Nancy Gohring, ITWorld.com, 06-16-09
Why We Love Technology
The Military Application of the iPhone
Benjamin Sutherland, Newsweek, 04-27-09
June 23rd is Alan Turing's Birthday--Read More About the Father of Computer Science
Wikipeida's bio
The Turing Test from the Standford Encyclopdia of Philosophy
Ryan Lynch
Director of Web Development and IT
Competitive Enterprise Institute
rlynch@cei.org
http://www.cei.org
http://www.openmarket.org
202-331-1010
Aerial Weapons & C4ISR and EW at the 2007 Paris Airshow
http://defense-update.com/events/2007/summary/parisairshow07systems.htm#more
AESA radars continue to capture the imagination and enthusiasm of designers and air forces, as their development progress and systems becoming more mature and reliable. While only a few systems actually work with full functionality on a regular basis, Active Electronic Scanning Array (AESA) provides virtually unlimited growth potential, due to its inherent agility (as a software controlled, electronically steering device), and design flexibility. Apart from its basic radar functionality, AESA can be used actively or passively, in support of a broad range of applications – including high power jamming, communications datalink or electronic intelligence (ELINT) sensor, passively employing its sensitive receive modules. (more...)
Communicating by Radar
Tapping the potential of non-traditional Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) Raytheon and L-3 Communications teamed to exploit data transfer applications of AESA radars. During flight tests conducted by the team, AESA radars were used to communicate high bandwidth SAR image map data at extremely high speed – far exceeding the capabilities of current fighter communication systems. Images were sent at a TV speed of 30 frames per second, from the aircraft to a ground based processing center. When image exploitation was completed, it was transmitted back to the aircraft, with the analyst's annotations.
This capability demonstrates the potential uses of AESA radars with tactical and surveillance aircraft as well as unmanned systems. This new capability is poised to become a key element in the Global Information Grid (GIG), adding potential secure communication links that will increase the GIG's information gathering and decision making utility for all users. As these radars proliferate among operational units and the transmit-receive infrastructure grows, these capabilities will support an increasing array of applications such as combat identification and homeland security, areas where communications interoperability and data fusion are essential.
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Going Net Centric now!
The thrust for net-centricity and overarching control via datalinks has also some negative effects, as it overloads the limited electromagnetic spectrum resources, driving users into ever higher frequencies. One of the ultimate solutions is the use narrow-band laser communications, carrying broadband point-to-point communications between airborne or surface bound terminals and specially equipped satellite. (Laser communications between satellites is already in development). The advantages of laser communications are numerous – they are discrete, resistant to countermeasures, extremely difficult to intercept and are immune to conventional eavesdropping techniques. Since these links do not require frequency coordination, they can establish connection rapidly and can sustain high transfer rates (and operating at high data-rate (100 MB/sec - 1 GB/sec).
Live communications via the Laser Optical Link (LOLA) was demonstrated during the Paris Air Show by the French Ministry of Defense' armament development and procurement agency (DGA). The exhibit was linked, via satellite, to an airborne Mystère 20 aircraft, transmitting live imagery captured on board. The display transferred live video from the cabin sending clear views of the countryside below. LOLA rapidly established links, within less than one second, and consistently transferred data at rates of 50 Mb/sec.
Advanced Integrated Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (I-ISTAR) technologies, developed by Thales, highlighted an accelerated processing cycle of the Observation, Orientation, Decision and Action (OODA). Thales is developing the Aeros Recon NG recce pod as an airborne recce EO system for the French Rafale. The pod has already been qualified for the Mirage 2000 and will enter service with Rafale F3 by 2009 for the French Air Force and Navy. One of the new technologies demonstrated by Thales this year, is the "Imagery on Demand" (IOD) technology, enabling the dissemination of real-time optimized optical or SAR images over low-bandwidth battlefield communications. Such systems enable analysts and end users to share images processed by the Thales MINDS systems deployed in fixed or forward locations.
Non traditional ISR is becoming a popular element in the planning and support of joint operations. At the Paris Airshow DRS described now Advanced Fighter Aircraft Command and control system (AFACE) pod system could establish real-time, worldwide air-to-air and air-to-ground modular communications and intelligence sharing network. Current FACE pods, carried on standard missile launch rails by A-10s, F-15s, F-18 and CF-18s have accumulated over fifty thousand flight hours, offering faster response to time critical targets and significantly improving low altitude communications, since they reduce the aircraft dependency on UHF/VHF repeater towers. The advanced version will be available in pod, or internally mounted configurations, providing real-time flight tracking (via GPS and INS). It will include a flight data recorder providing mission planning and debriefing functions. AFACE will introduce more versatile communications including secure voice and data, video, support conference calls and pilot dial-out. It will also include broadband Iridium link and WiFi connection. The system is offered with two add-on modules, supporting non traditional ISR and counter IED missions. The geo-referenced targeting mission module will establish geo-referenced imagery database on board enabling users to download relevant images according to their preference. The system will also support 'cursor on target' functionality, extracting accurate target coordinates for geo-targeted weapons. For the Anti-IED (electronic attack) mission, the system could be used to augment other EW platforms covering high priority missions, rendering select ground threats ineffective.
The Russian Communications specialist Polyot unveiled some of the new capabilities, driving the evolving command and control infrastructure supporting modern Russian fighters, used domestically and for export. Polyot claims that aircraft supported by their encrypted, jam resistant datalinks can achieve up to 25% increase in combat effectiveness, by establishing autonomous fighter groups and reducing pilot workload. The systems support high speed data networks and use universal interfaces for integration, linking the aircraft avionics and ground based communications.
A more autonomous 'pilot associate' style system was introduced by Elbit Systems. Called "On-Board Decision Support and Mission Planning System – ODSS, this system is designed to arrange, process and display to the pilot, the most relevant mission critical information necessary for optimal flight path decision. Based on operational expertise, experience and input from combat pilots, Elbit Systems established the ODSS knowledge-base, employing artificial intelligence system to analyze current mission data, tactical and geographical information, generating a recommended flight path designed for each mission profile. For example, ODSS can recommend an optimal flight path which leaves optimal space for evasive maneuvers in a segment of the flight path exposed to enemy threats. The system is used on the ground, supporting an automated mission preparation. While airborne, ODSS contributes to faster, more accurate and efficient decisions, based on the rapid and continuous analysis of multiple possible options.
Precision Attack Getting Cheaper?
Few new weapons were on display here. Much of the work is being focused on reducing the 'cost of precision kill' by introducing affordable, high precision guidance systems, and lighter weapons both contributing to more precise effect with less collateral damage. To enhance future, low-cost guided weapons, low-cost strap-down dual-mode seekers employing Semi-Active Laser (SAL) and Infra-Red (IR) guidance systems are developed by MBDA. These components will be used with powerful, low-cost computing and actuating systems enhancing future 'smart' munitions, including 68/70mm guided rockets, 155mm guided artillery projectiles and 120mm mortar bombs.
Elbit Systems also unveiled a laser guidance kit developed for aerial weapons. In the past, the company developed laser guidance kits for the Wizzard guided bomb; these have now been miniaturized into guidance kits, fitting bombs as well as much smaller 68/70mm rockets, converting these into ‘metric’ precision-guided weapons. The kit, designated "STAR" improves the accuracy and overall effectiveness of attack missions as well as reducing collateral damage. The STAR guidance kit was recently selected by Boeing, to upgrade the JDAM GPS guided bombs.
Sagem displayed the growing family of AASM guided bombs, including 2,000, 1,000 and 500 pound weapons. Another version, a 250 pound guided bomb is currently in development. AASM is scheduled to enter service with the French Air Force Rafale squadrons this year (2007). Boeing recently received $28 million contract to fit laser guidance kits to 600 existing 500 pounds JDAMS (400 for the air force, 200 for the Navy) by 2009 to meet a quick reaction USAF program.
Fighting over GPS Control
GPS has become so common and natural, that we can’t think how we could live without it. But GPS is also highly sensitive to interference and deception, especially at war, when GPS jammers are employed. Such systems were shown by the Russian company Aviaconversiya, the same company that, in 2003, sold GPS jammers to Saddam Hussein. Aviaconversiya presented a range of portable / airborne and remotely controlled jammers called "Umbrella" that can cover a wire area disabling GPS services over the entire country. The employment of such systems will deny both friendly and enemy use of GPS guided systems, such as simple UAVs and GPS guided weapons (such as JDAM). "We don’t know how many systems were sold to Iraq, since they were procured by middlemen" Aviaconversiya executive told Defense Update, ‘but there were plenty of them. Until then, our biggest customer was the US government, buying our systems for evaluation and testing". He added.
The Pentagon is certainly concerned about the vulnerability of its GPS systems. Several programs were launched to eliminate this capability gap. In particular, extensive work is in progress to improve the capability of the GPS guided Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) to overcome GPS jamming. In June 2007 Boeing announced the successful completion of developmental flight testing of its integrated GPS Anti-Jam system (IGAS) for JDAM. According to Boeing’s program manager for IGAS, Dennis Kast, "IGAS uses digital signal processing to significantly reduce the impact of GPS jamming, allowing the warfighter to use the weapon with confidence in a variety of battlefield environments". Boeing will complete the system’s development in 2007 and plans initial deliveries in 2008.
Another GPS counter-countermeasure, designed to protect GPS navigation systems against enemy jamming and deception was unveiled by Elisra, a member of the Elbit Systems group. The system went through successful flight trials exhibiting smooth and stable functioning. Throughout the test the system successfully annulled powerful jammers with its advanced spatial null steering technology, fully meeting the tests’ complex jamming challenge. The system, designated iSN/V1 ensures on-board GPS receivers are generating reliable, uninterrupted GPS solutions. The system covers extensive geographical areas, providing immunity for multiple satellite channels and handling multiple jammers operating on concurrent frequencies. It is designed for operation on board any system utilizing GPS, including aircraft, helicopters and UAVs
Getting to Zero Update
25 June 2009
Please note, BASIC and Crisis Action have a bi-weekly update devoted solely to diplomatic developments related to Iran's nuclear program, which may be found at the following web address: www.basicint.org/update/iran.htm.
Previous editions of BASIC's GTZ Update are available here.
To subscribe or unsubscribe from this update, please visit the following page: www.basicint.org/contacts/index.php.
IN THIS ISSUE:
* BASIC and Getting to Zero (GTZ)
* Commitments to Disarmament and Arms Control
* Country Reports
o United States
o United Kingdom
o Iran
o North Korea
o Russia
o Pakistan
* Missile Defense
* Additional Publications
BASIC and Getting to Zero (GTZ)
BASIC staff have been meeting with officials in Washington and London while the U.S. administration is conducting a Nuclear Posture Review and the British government is facing pressure to reconsider moving ahead with a replacement platform for its nuclear weapon system. Martin Butcher authored a background briefing on the NPR for BASIC in an effort to inform European officials about the process. The NPR will surely have consequences for NATO's Strategic Concept Review, which the alliance has now started. Paul Ingram, BASIC's Executive Director, and Ian Davis, founder of NATO Watch, warn in this blog entry for the Connect U.S. Fund that NATO will need to pay particular attention to its relationship with Russia in order to allow the Obama administration to pursue fully its nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament goals.
* Obama's Nuclear Posture Review: Putting flesh on the bone of his nuclear diplomacy (PDF)
Martin Butcher, Getting to Zero Special Briefing, June 23, 2009 http://www.basicint.org/pubs/Special-NPR%20(3).pdf
* NATO reform critical to the Obama Administration's nuclear disarmament agenda
Paul Ingram and Ian Davis, Connect U.S. Fund Blog, May 1, 2009
http://www.connectusfund.org/blogs/nato-reform-critical-obama-
administration%E2%80%99s-nuclear-disarmament-agenda
Commitments to Disarmament and Arms Control
Preparatory Committee for 2010 NPT considered a success
Delegates to the third and final session of the Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) for the 2010 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference (RevCon) agreed on a provisional agenda for the 2010 Review Conference - the first time one has been agreed upon in 15 years. The agenda includes consideration of provisions to protect non-nuclear weapons states from nuclear coercion, the establishment of more nuclear weapon-free zones, operationalizing the right of each nation to develop peaceful nuclear energy, and measures to deepen nonproliferation and disarmament.
Delegates failed, despite attempts, to adopt a list of specific recommendations for the RevCon. The first draft, released by the Chair on May 7th, recommended concrete steps to be taken toward disarmament, including reducing the operational status of nuclear forces, marginalizing their role in security policies, and refraining from their "qualitative improvement." But the revised draft, released the following week, watered down the disarmament proposals putting greater emphasis on the implementation of nonproliferation initiatives and highlighting the 1995 Resolution on the Middle East (for a WMD free zone). Demands from some non-nuclear weapon states that the nuclear weapons states agree to legally-binding commitments to dismantle their nuclear arsenals and not to use their nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states were rejected. Members failed to adopt the second revision of recommendations. Nevertheless, the Prep Com was considered to be successful - few had expected any concrete agreements at this point, and the stage has been set for 2010.
Conference on Disarmament - FM(c)T
The second session of the 2009 Conference on Disarmament also experienced a breakthrough. Soon after U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon's opening remarks on May 18 made reference to the encouraging political climate for disarmament, the Conference created a working group to discuss the development of a Fissile Material (cut-off) Treaty (FM(c)T). The White House released a statement by U.S. President Barack Obama declaring, "Today's decision ends more than a decade of inactivity in the Conference on Disarmament, and signals a commitment to work together on this fundamental challenge."
START
The first round of substantive negotiations for follow-on to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) was held in Moscow from May 18-20, with a second round of negotiations held in Geneva from June 1-3. The U.S. delegation was led by Assistant Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller, and the Russian team was headed by Anatoly Antonov, the Russian Foreign Ministry's Chief of Security and Disarmament. The United States reported productive meetings, and a Russian spokeswoman for President Medvedev said that a draft document to replace the 1991 START agreements may be ready by the July 6-8 summit in Moscow. Negotiators began their third round of meetings on June 23 in Geneva. START expires on December 5 of this year.
IAEA continues selection process for a new Director General
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has not yet selected a new Director General to replace its current Director, General Mohamed ElBaradei, who steps down in November 2009. Currently there are five nominated candidates for the position: Mr. Yukya Amano (Japan); Mr. Luis Echavarri (Spain); Mr. Abdul Samad Minty (South Africa); Mr. Ernest Petric (Slovenia); and Mr. Jean-Pol Poncelet (Belgium). Following April's elections when all candidates failed to gain the necessary two-thirds majority from the IAEA Board of Governors, a secret non-binding "straw poll" was held on June 9, and Japan's Amano received 20 of the 35 votes cast, leaving him just short of the required two-thirds majority, and South Africa's Minty received 11 votes. A formal vote is scheduled for July 2, and will be repeated until a candidate garners the two-thirds requirement. Diplomats fear that a protracted election process combined with the North-South tension already prevalent on the IAEA Board could damage the Agency.
U.N Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon launches the "WMD-WeMustDisarm! Campaign"
On June 13, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon marked the 100 days leading up to the International Day of Peace on September 21 by launching a new U.N. campaign to "raise awareness of the true costs and dangers of nuclear weapons." Each day during the 100-day campaign, a reason why the international community should support nuclear disarmament is shared via Facebook, Myspace, Twitter, and other social networking and Internet media venues. The United Nations Foundation has a 'We Must Disarm Declaration' open for signatures on their webpage to support the campaign. On June 15 Ban Ki-Moon issued a statement on the importance of expediently bringing the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty into force. He appealed to the nations that have not yet signed and ratified the Treaty to do so as quickly as possible.
Further Reading
Indonesia will Ratify CTBT if U.S. does
UPI, June 9, 2009
http://www.upi.com/Emerging_Threats/2009/06/09/
Indonesia-to-ratify-CTBT-if-US-does/UPI-14461244588906/
Obama seeks global uranium fuel bank
Bryan Bender, Boston Globe, June 8, 2009
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/ 2009/06/08/
with_eye_on_iran_obama_seeks_creation_of_
world_uranium_fuel_bank/
No Nukes: Possibility or Pipe Dream?
The Editors, The New York Times Blog: Room for Debate, June 7, 2009
http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/07/
no-nukes-possibility-or-pipedream/
The Renaissance of Nuclear Disarmament
Anthony Salloum, Embassy, June 3, 2009
http://www.embassymag.ca/page/view/salloum-6-3-2009
Case for Ratifying Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
Samuel Berger, Sam Nunn, and William Perry, Politico, June 2, 2009
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23191.html
After Iraq, it's not just North Korea that wants a bomb
Seumas Milne, The Guardian, May 27, 2009
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/27/
north-korea-nuclear-weapons-us
Report from the NPT Preparatory Committee 2009
Miles A. Pomper, MIIS James Martin Center for Nonproliferation
Studies, May 26, 2009
http://cns.miis.edu/stories/090526_npt_report.htm
Obama Treaty Push Hinges on Global Nuclear 'Listening' Net
Charles Hanley, The Associated Press, May 19, 2009
http://www.usnews.com/articles/science/2009/05/19/
obama-treaty-push-hinges-on-global-nuclear-listening-net.html
Developing Nations Seek Assurances on Nuclear Arms
Colum Lynch, The Washington Post, May 16, 2009
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/
2009/05/15/AR2009051503518.html
The Trouble With Zero
Philip Taubman, The New York Times, May 9, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/10/weekinreview/
10taubman.html
Turkey to face pressure over U.S. nukes on its soil
Lale Sariibrahimoglu, Today's Zaman, May 4, 2009
http://www.todayszaman.com/tz-web/detaylar.do?load=detay&
link=174286&bolum=100
Electing the Nuclear Pope
Charles D. Ferguson, Foreign Policy, May 2009
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=4913
Grading Progress on 13 Steps Toward Nuclear Disarmament
Sharon Squassoni, Carnegie Endowment, Policy Outlook No. 45, May 2009
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/13_steps.pdf
Beyond START: Negotiating the Next Step in U.S. and Russian Strategic
Nuclear Arms Reductions
Steven Pifer, Brookings Foreign Policy Paper Series Number 15, May, 2009
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2009/ 05_arms_
reduction_pifer/05_arms_reduction_pifer.pdf
Reshaping Strategic Relationships: Expanding the Arms Control Toolbox
Lewis A. Dunn, Arms Control Today, May 2009
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_5/Dunn
U.S., Russia Agree on Path for New Arms Cuts
Cole Harvey, Arms Control Today, May 2009
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_5/US-Russia
The Logic of the Test Ban Treaty
Daryl G. Kimball, Arms Control Today, May 2009
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_5/focus
Confronting the Bomb: A Short History of the World Nuclear
Disarmament Movement
Lawrence S. Wittner, Stanford University Press, California, 2009
http://www.sup.org/book.cgi?id=9646
Country Reports
United States
Sensitive, unclassified information on U.S. nuclear sites accidentally published
On June 2, the U.S. Government Printing Office (GPO) accidentally published on its website a 286-page draft document that was prepared for the IAEA on the location and sensitive design details of U.S. nuclear facilities. Steven Aftergood of the Federation of American Scientists first reported on the FAS blog Secrecy News the appearance of the document. The GPO took down the report quickly although the document was not classified.
Tauscher confirmation hearing for position in Administration's arms control team
Representative Ellen Tauscher (Chair of the House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee) testified at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing considering her nomination as the new Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security on June 9. She said her immediate priorities will be negotiating a follow-up agreement to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Russia, the development of a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty, and the ratification and entry into force of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Tauscher reiterated President Obama's call for a world free of nuclear weapons, while confirming that the United States will "maintain a safe, secure and reliable deterrent against any adversary and an effective defense for our allies" while nuclear weapons continued to exist. Rep. Tauscher was still awaiting confirmation as of June 24.
On June 1, Secretary of State Clinton named Robert Einhorn as her special advisor for disarmament and nonproliferation and Susan F. Burk was confirmed as the President's special representative for nuclear nonproliferation.
Obama meets with Shultz, Perry, Kissinger and Nunn
On May 19, the four Americans most widely associated with the current push for nuclear disarmament through their two notable op-eds in the Wall Street Journal in January 2007 and 2008, former Secretaries of State Henry Kissinger and George Shultz, former Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Sam Nunn, and former Secretary of Defense William Perry, met with President Obama to discuss nuclear weapons strategy. Obama listed strengthening the NPT, pursuing ratification of the CTBT, and cooperating with Russia in arms reduction efforts as specific steps that must be taken to "lock down loose nuclear weapons" and, in the long term, eliminate them. "All four of us support enthusiastically what the president is doing," Shultz commented. After the meeting President Obama spoke with reporters:
"I don't think anybody would accuse these four gentlemen of being dreamers. They're hard-headed, tough defenders of American interests and American security. But what they have come together to help galvanize is a recognition that we do not want a world of continued nuclear proliferation, and that in order for us to meet the security challenges of the future, America has to take leadership in this area."
Senator John McCain also voices qualified support for a world without nuclear weapons
In a June 3 speech honoring former President Ronald Reagan, Arizona Senator and former Republican Presidential candidate John McCain added his voice to the increasing number of U.S. politicians supporting the vision of nuclear disarmament. Quoting a Ronald Reagan speech from 1983, McCain said, "The only value in possessing nuclear weapons is to make sure they can't be used ever. I know I speak for people everywhere when I say our dream is to see the day when nuclear weapons will be banished from the face of the Earth." The same day the White House released a statement by President Obama welcoming McCain's support of a "world without nuclear weapons" and expressing the President's commitment to working together with Congress on issues of arms control.
Further Reading
Nuclear Promises
Zia Mian, Foreign Policy in Focus, June 4, 2009
http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/6166
Remarks by the President on a New Beginning (Cairo Speech)
Barack Obama, The White House, Office of the Press Secretary,
June 4, 2009
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/
05/29/AR2009052903108.html
Statement of Thomas P. D'Agostino, Under Secretary for Nuclear
Security and Administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration, U.S. Department of Energy
Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, June 3, 2009
http://armedservices.senate.gov/statemnt/2009/June/
D%27Agostino%2006-03-09.pdf
The Case for No First Use
Scott D. Sagan, Survival, Volume 51, Issue 3, June 2009, pp. 163-182
(subscription or purchase required to access full article)
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~
content=a911401295~db=all
NPR [Nuclear Posture Review] Terms of Reference Fact Sheet
Department of Defense, June 2, 2009
http://www.defenselink.mil/news/d20090602NPR.pdf
Lots of Hedging, Little Leading: An Analysis of the Congressional
Strategic Posture Commission Report
Hans M. Kristensen and Ivan Oelrich, Arms Control Association, June, 2009
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_6/KristensenOelrich
The Hoped-For Laser Miracles
Editorial, The New York Times, May 28, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/29/opinion/
29fri3.html?th&emc=th
The Test Ban Treaty
Editorial, The New York Times, May 24, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/25/opinion/25mon1.html?em
Statement of Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates
Senate Armed Services Committee, May 14, 2009
http://armed-services.senate.gov/statemnt/2009/May/
Gates%2005-14-09.pdf
Posture Statement of Admiral Michael G. Mullen, USN,
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Senate Armed Services Committee, May 14, 2009
http://armed-services.senate.gov/statemnt/2009/May/
Mullen%2005-14-09.pdf
Testimony on "NNSA's Fiscal Year 2010 President's Budget
Request" by Thomas P. D'Agostino, Under Secretary for Nuclear Security and Administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration, U.S. Department of Energy
House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, May 13, 2009
http://www.nnsa.energy.gov/news/2349.htm
U.S. Warhead disposal in 15-year backlog
Peter Eisler, USA Today, May 13, 2009
http://www.usatoday.com/news/military/2009-05-12-
nukes_N.htm
Obama Administration is Bringing Nuclear Arms Control Back
Mary Beth Sheridan, The Washington Post, May 8, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/25/opinion/25mon1.html?em
Nuclear Bailout: The Costs and Consequences of Renovating
the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Complex
William D. Hartung, New America Foundation, May 7, 2009
http://www.newamerica.net/publications/policy/nuclear_
bailout_costs
Strategic Failure: Congressional Strategic Posture Commission
Report
Ivan Oelrich, Hans M. Kristensen, FAS Strategic Security Blog,
May 6, 2009
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/05/commission-2.php
Defense budget baloney
Winslow T. Wheeler, Politico, May 6, 2009
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0509/22149.html
United Kingdom
UK Commons Report suggests renewal of Trident could be seen as contradictory to UK goals
After receiving evidence from a variety of witnesses and groups, including BASIC, the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee published a report on June 14 on "Global Security: Non-Proliferation." It commended the British government for publicly acknowledging the connection between nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament, but also stated that much more could be done. The Committee warned that the 2010 Review Conference could fail without "decisive movement by the five recognized nuclear weapons states as a whole on nuclear disarmament measures." It advised that the UK government's disarmament public diplomacy and transparency would be undermined by the decision to proceed full speed towards Trident replacement. This fall the British government is due to submit a full design contract [Initial Gate stage] for the new submarines. The report recommended, "that the Government should not take any decision at the Initial Gate stage until Parliament has had the chance to scrutinise the matter in a debate." The Committee also said that the Government should also come forward with an explanation of what it sees as a "minimum deterrent" posture and whether there are any conditions under which the Government "would be prepared to suspend the Trident renewal programme."
Ministry of Defense confirms radioactive leakage from nuclear powered-submarines
In April the Ministry of Defence released a report acknowledging multiple safety breaches at the nuclear submarine fleet's base at Faslane (HM Naval Base Clyde). The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) has sought the right to inspect and control operations at the naval base and has sent "final warning" letters to the MoD, threatening to shut down nuclear operations at Faslane. The UK Government has refused to provide SEPA with direct legal authority, citing national security sensitivities.
Further Reading
A naive approach to nuclear standoff
Harry Phibbs, Comment is Free, The Guardian, June 18, 2009
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/18/nick-
clegg-trident
Nick Clegg says Lib Dems won't replace Trident because world has moved on
Patrick Wintour and Nicholas Watt, The Guardian, June 16, 2009
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jun/16/trident-liberal-
democrats-nick-clegg
Brown urged to review Trident proposal
James Blitz, Financial Times, June 15, 2009
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/311bb044-5944-11de-80b3-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
Global Security: Non-Proliferation Fourth Report of Session 200809
Foreign Affairs Committee, House of Commons, June 14, 2009
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200809/cmselect/cmfaff/
222/222.pdf
Trident may be wrong size ... so we pay an extra GBP100m
Rob Edwards, The Sunday Herald, May 10, 2009
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4156/is_20090510/ai_n31667649/
Iran
Presidential election
The current crisis within Iran, which has this last week included widespread violence, and the power struggle behind the scenes with an uncertain outcome, will have an enduring and fundamental impact on the international dispute over Iran's nuclear program. While all candidates have been committed to continuing the program, it is thought that the leading opposition candidate, Mir Hossein Moussavi, would be more open to diplomatic engagement with the West, and he has suggested that he would provide stronger guarantees that Iran's nuclear program is strictly for energy.
Diplomacy, on hold prior to the elections, remains frozen. U.S. and European officials had hoped to receive an official response from Tehran to their invitation offered through Javier Solana to join the P-5+1 talks. During a diplomatic visit prior to the elections, French President Nicolas Sarkozy strongly urged Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki to support Iran's participation in the P-5+1 talks or risk increased international isolation. U.S. deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Rosemary DiCarlo reported to the Security Council that Iran has not officially responded to the invitation but, despite this, "The United States remains committed to direct diplomacy with Iran to resolve issues of concern to the international community and will engage on the basis of mutual respect." Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has also pressed Iran to respond to the invitation.
IAEA report on Iran's nuclear program
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released their latest report on Iran on June 5, a week before the elections, that presented findings that were similar to previous reports: no confirmation of evidence of diversion; outstanding and unresolved questions; additional number of centrifuges added and greater stocks of enriched uranium accumulated; and an appeal to Iran to implement the Additional Protocol. Iranian officials again responded by reiterating the program's peaceful purposes and that they had cooperated with inspectors to the degree that is required of them.
Ballistic missile test
U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates confirmed the May launch of an Iranian medium-range ballistic missile, the Sajjil-2, able to reach Israel and some of southern Europe. President Ahmadinejad had used the test to engage in aggressive electoral posturing during the Iranian Presidential Elections.
Further Reading
Iran Uprising Changes Nuclear Calculus
Joe Cirincione, Huffington Post, June 17, 2009
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joe-cirincione/iran-uprising-changes-nuc_b_216583.html
IAEA Report on Iran: Centrifuge and LEU increases; access to
Arak reactor denied; no progress on outstanding issues
David Albright and Jacqueline Shire, Institute for Science and
International Security, June 5, 2009
http://isis-online.org/publications/iran/Iran_IAEA_Report_Analysis_
5June2009.pdf
Iran Increases Uranium Enrichment Pace; Defies U.N. Inspectors
Jonathan Tirone, Bloomberg, June 5, 2009
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azhpbOe1vsB8
Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions
1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008) and 1835 (2008) in the
Islamic Republic of Iran Report by the Director General, IAEA
(available via the Institute for Science and International Security) June 5, 2009
http://isis-online.org/publications/iran/IAEA_Iran_Report_5June2009.pdf
U.S.-Iranian Engagement: The View from Tehran
International Crisis Group, Middle East Briefing No. 28, June 2, 2009
http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/middle_east___north_
africa/iraq_iran_gulf/b28_u.s._iranian_engagement___the_view_
from_tehran.pdf
Former diplomat: Iran won't stop nuclear work (interview)
Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times, May 27, 2009
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran-qa27-
2009may27,0,7118239.story
Iran's test could alter Europe's missile balance
Nicholas Kralev, Washington Times, May 21, 2009
http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/may/21/tehran-
missile-test-stokes-debate/
Iran's Nuclear Program: An Opportunity for Dialogue
Kayhan Barzegar, Center for Strategic Research, May 2009
http://www.csr.ir/departments.aspx?lng=en&depid=74&&abtid=
06&&semid=1797
Iran's Nuclear and Missile Potential: A Joint Threat Assessment by U.S. and
Russian Technical Experts
EastWest Institute, May 2009
http://docs.ewi.info/JTA.pdf
North Korea
North Korea Responses to North Korea's nuclear test
On May 25 North Korea conducted its second underground nuclear test in an effort to "bolster up its nuclear deterrent for self-defense." North Korea also announced that it is no longer bound by the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War and warned other countries not to disrupt or stop its ships suspected of transporting missiles and other weapons. The nuclear test also coincides with intensified speculation and rumors over the future succession to Kim Jong-il.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon issued a statement which "strongly deplores the [...] underground nuclear test [...] in clear and grave violations of the relevant Security Council resolutions." The Security Council was swift to denounce North Korea's actions. On Friday, June 12, after extensive negotiations, the Security Council unanimously passed Security Council Resolution 1874, imposing heightened economic and military sanctions. The resolution also "Calls upon all States to inspect, in accordance with their national authorities and legislation, and consistent with international law, all cargo to and from the DPRK, in their territory, including seaports and airports, if the State concerned has information that provides reasonable grounds to believe the cargo contains items the supply, sale, transfer, or export of which is prohibited." As of June 24th, a U.S. ship was tracking one North Korean vessel, suspected of carrying illicit arms for Myanmar.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton condemned North Korea's "belligerent behavior" and has indicated that the United States will consider placing North Korea back on its list of states that sponsor terrorism, in addition to developing a "mechanism [... to] interdict North Korean shipments." In testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy, Ambassador Stephen Bosworth, reported that the United States remains open to diplomatic engagement, although there are no signs that North Korea is ready or willing to come to the table. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced that the U.S. is deploying its Terminal High Altitude Area and Defense (THADD) and Sea Based X-Band (SBX) radar off the coast of Hawaii. This announcement comes just days after a Japanese newspaper reported that North Korea may launch a long-range ballistic missile toward Hawaii, though many analysts doubt that North Korea has any with that range.
Amid the controversy surrounding North Korea's weapons programs, two American journalists, Laura Ling and Euna Lee, were accused of illegally entering North Korean territory and sentenced to 12 years in a labor camp. American officials were quick to denounce the court's decision and called for the release of the two journalists on humanitarian grounds.
Further Reading
North Korea: Getting Back to Talks
Asia Report No 169, The International Crisis Group, June 18, 2009
http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/asia/north_korea/
169_north_korea___getting_back_to_talks.pdf
North Korea's Nuclear Program: Looking Forward
Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon, Martin Malin, Hui Zhang,
Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, June 9, 2009
http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/19105/north_koreas_
nuclear_program.html?breadcrumb=%2F
Testing the World's Patience
Daryl G. Kimball, Arms Control Today, June 2009
http://www.armscontrol.org/2009_06/focus
North Korea's Weapons Testing
John S. Park, U.S. Institute of Peace, On the Issues: North Korea,
May 28, 2009
http://www.usip.org/on_the_issues/nk_weapons.html
Responding to North Korea's Nuclear Test
Gareth Evans, The Age, May 28, 2009
http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6119&l=1
Next phase in the analysis of the announced DPRK nuclear test
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization, May 27, 2009
http://www.ctbto.org/press-centre/press-releases/2009/next-
phase-in-the-analysis-of-the-announced-dprk-nuclear-test/
Analysts Worry Threatening N. Korea with Sanctions Could Create
Escalation
Andre de Nesnera, Voice of America, May 26, 2009
http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-05-26-voa51.cfm
What to Do About North Korea
Robert Kagan, Dan Blumenthal, The Washington Post, May 26, 2009
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/
2009/05/25/ST2009052502476.html
Commentary: North Korea blast is a test for U.S.
Paul Carroll, Ploughshares Fund, CNN.com, May 26, 2009
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/05/26/carroll.korea.
nuclear/index.html?section=cnn_latest
No Crisis for North Korea
Editorial, The Washington Post, May 26, 2009
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/
05/25/AR2009052501505.html
A path to peace with North Korea
Martin Butcher, Guardian, May 26, 2009
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/26/north-korea-
nuclear-test-peace
North Korea Will Not Be Ignored
Joe Cirincione, Huffington Post, May 25, 2009
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joe-cirincione/north-korea-will-not-
be-i_b_207277.html
Russia
Russia's National Security Strategy Released
On May 13, five days before diplomats began their May 18-20 talks to prepare for the START negotiations, Russian President Medvedev released the new national security strategy detailing over-arching security challenges and policy priorities through 2020. The document [Russian] formalized energy as a key issue and important foreign policy factor, and promised to "make every effort to retain [nuclear] parity with the United States." Security Council head Nikolai Patrushev made clear after the release that NATO enlargement is a high security priority for Russia.
Putin support for vision of world without nuclear weapons; while Commander has low expectations for START follow-on reductions
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Russia could give up nuclear weapons if everyone else that had them did the same, during a meeting with German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier on June 10th. Steinmeier was reported to have focused heavily on issues of nuclear disarmament during his talks with Putin in Moscow and to have encouraged Russian President Medvedev and Putin to pursue improved relations with the United States and the European Union. On the same day, the commander of Russia's Strategic Nuclear Forces, Colonel-General Nikolai Solovtsov, was quoted as saying that Russia cannot cut its nuclear stockpile by more than a few hundred strategic warheads during START follow-on negotiations.
Further Reading
Nuclear Notebook: Russian Nuclear Forces, 2009
Robert S. Norris and Hans M. Kristensen, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,
May/June, 2009
http://thebulletin.metapress.com/content/h304370t70137734/fulltext.pdf
The Loose Russian Nukes
Elizabeth Zolotukhina, GlobalSecurity.org, May 19, 2009
http://sitrep.globalsecurity.org/articles/090519345-the-loose-russian-nukes.htm
Pakistan
Pakistan augmenting its nuclear weapons program
In recent testimony before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, Admiral Michael Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that Pakistan, which has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), is substantially stepping up its nuclear weapons program, including the production of more fissile material. Congress is currently considering significantly increased civilian and military aid to Pakistan, as support for counterterrorism efforts, and Senators are seeking assurances the aid is not be spent on increasing the destructiveness of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. The United States has provided funding intended specifically to address the security and safety of Pakistan's nuclear weapons, but has no control or clear audit ability to ensure the money is spent wisely. President Zardari, in an interview with Der Speigel, reassured those concerned that "the nuclear capability of Pakistan is in safe hands," but admitted that this was less certain if Pakistan's democracy were to fail. U.S. President Barack Obama said later in an interview with DAWN that he felt confident "that the Pakistani government has safeguarded its nuclear arsenal."
Further Reading
Another nuclear anniversary
Pervez Hoodbhoy, DAWN, May 28, 2009
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/
dawn/news/pakistan/16-Another-nuclear-anniversary-hs-12
ISIS Statement on Washington Post Report from May 28, 2009
Institute for Science and International Security, May 28, 2009
http://isis-online.org/publications/WP_Language_28May2009.pdf
Missile Defense
Missile defense still hurdle in U.S.-Russian relations
The U.S. proposal, involving ten missile interceptors in Poland and a radar system in the Czech Republic, is currently under review. Before Congressional budgetary hearings on June 9, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said he believed American and Russian officials' assessments of Iran's missile program are now more closely aligned, and suggested that this may mean Russia becomes more amenable to a missile system based in the Czech Republic and Poland. Russian officials afterwards protested saying the plans were still unacceptable and must be abandoned. Colonel-General Nikolai Solovtsov, commander of Strategic Missile Forces, said they hope by 2016 to "modernize not only missile systems but also command-and-control systems in order to improve their ability to overcome missile defenses and increase the survivability of delivery vehicles." Poland expects a U.S. Patriot battery, part of a theater missile defense system, to be set up on its territory this year, regardless of the missile defense timetable. U.S. Admiral Michael Mullen was scheduled to travel to Moscow at the end of June to meet with General Nikolai Markarov, and they are expected to discuss the missile defense system.
Gates proposes cuts to missile defense plans
Secretary Gates has proposed budgetary cuts in missile defense systems in the FY 2010 budget. Roughly $7.8 billion will be allocated for missile defense programs, down $1.2 billion from the previous year. Cuts include the Multiple Kill Vehicle, the Kinetic Energy Interceptor, and Boeing's second Airborne Laser aircraft. The SM-3 and Theater High-Altitude Area Defense programs are due for increases in funding. Gates pledged that the Defense Department will continue to invest in augmenting defenses against long-range missiles.
Further Reading
Strategic Missile Defense: A Reality Check
Greg Thielmann, Arms Control Association, May 21, 2009
http://www.armscontrol.org/system/files/TAB2_5_21_
2009_FINAL1.pdf
Hearing to receive testimony on military space programs in
review of the defense acquisition request for fiscal year 2010
and the future years defense program
Transcript, U.S. Senate Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, May, 20, 2009
http://armed-services.senate.gov/Transcripts/2009/05%20May/
09-32%20-%205-20-09.pdf
Space Security or Anti-Satellite Weapons
Michael Krepon and Sam Black, The Stimson Center Space Security
Program, May 2009
http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/missile/naic/NASIC2009.pdf
Additional Publications
Iran's Procurement of U.S. Military Aircraft Parts: Two case
studies in illicit trade
David Albright, Paul Brannan and Andrea Scheel, Institute for Science and
International Security, May 21, 2009
http://isis-online.org/publications/expcontrol/Iran_Aircraft_ Procurement.pdf
Steinmeier Calls for U.S. to Withdraw Nukes
Oliver Meier, Arms Control Today, May 2009
http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_5/Steinmeier
The Taming of the Great Nuclear Powers
Godfried van Benthem van den Bergh, Carnegie Endowment Policy Outlook
No. 46, May 2009
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=
23152&prog=zgp&proj=znpp
An Opportune Moment for a Shared Euro-Atlantic Security Strategy
Simon Serfaty, Center for Strategic & International Studies, May 2009
http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/090506_serfaty_strategicconsensus_(2).pdf
Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat Report
National Air and Space Intelligence Center,
Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, NASIC-1031-0985-09, April 2009
(posted on the site of the Federation of American Scientists, June 2009).
http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/missile/naic/NASIC2009.pdf
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